New report Identifies Critical Forest Corridors And Flying Rivers Essential To Prevent An Amazon Tipping Point

May 28, 2026

Flying rivers that sustain forests, agriculture, and water security across the Amazon are increasingly at risk from deforestation and infrastructure expansion.

The white paper, Keeping the Flying Rivers Flowing: How Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon Threatens Rainfall in Peru and Bolivia, released by Amazon Conservation, maps for the first time the flying rivers that span the South American continent and their role in keeping the Amazon Rainforest’s tipping point at bay.

Flying rivers are seasonal pathways of atmospheric moisture flows that act like highways carrying water in the atmosphere, from the Atlantic Ocean to the Andes Mountains and providing vital water resources to the nine countries that form the Amazon Basin. The analysis goes beyond simply identifying the invisible flying rivers’ trajectory to pinpoint the forests most critical to maintaining this system and the areas where deforestation and planned infrastructure projects pose the greatest risks to these pathways.

The report finds that forests and ecosystems in the southwestern Amazon in Bolivia and Peru depend on flying rivers for more than 70% of their annual precipitation. As deforestation advances along these moisture pathways, the forest’s ability to recycle rainfall weakens, increasing the likelihood of drought and ecosystem collapse. The study highlights the dry season flying river as the most vulnerable moisture flow in the Amazon. These findings come after the severe 2023–2024 Amazon drought, the most intense on record, which caused devastating impacts across the region. In Bolivia, soy production in Santa Cruz dropped by 75%, while potato harvests in Peru’s Puno region fell dramatically. River systems, hydropower generation, and bioeconomies dependent on healthy forests, such as Brazil nut production, were also severely affected.. 

“Flying rivers are the invisible engine that sustains life, productive ecosystems, and identity in northern Bolivia. In the department of Pando, where the forest cover still maintains high levels of integrity, this climatic phenomenon is not an abstract concept; it is the direct regulator of the productive cycles of local communities that depend on the fruits produced by their forests,” states Daniel Larrea, Director of Science and Technology at Conservación Amazónica-ACEAA.

Another one of the report’s key findings is the strategic importance of conserving forests in western Brazil, particularly in the state of Acre, where all three seasonal flying river pathways converge before carrying atmospheric moisture toward Peru and Bolivia. This critical corridor acts as a bottleneck for the Amazon’s water cycle, making it especially vulnerable to disruptions caused by deforestation and infrastructure expansion. The pathway already crosses heavily deforested regions across Brazil, including southern Pará, and faces mounting pressure from planned road and infrastructure projects connecting Brazil and Peru. Among the most concerning examples is the BR-319 highway, whose paving could trigger more than 12 million acres of additional deforestation and significantly weaken the forest’s capacity to recycle rainfall across the Amazon Basin.

“These communities have no representation in the infrastructure licensing or land designation decisions that increase deforestation risk. The paper advocates for closing this gap between transboundary impact and national-scale decision making,” states Blaise Bodin, Director of Strategy and Policy at Amazon Conservation. 

Mapping strategic areas where prioritized conservation is needed

To address the growing threats to flying rivers, the report introduces the concept of Critical Moisture Territories: forests at high risk of deforestation that play a vital role in moisture recycling and keeping the flying rivers flowing. Many of the Amazon’s most important Critical Moisture Territories coincide with Brazil’s Undesignated Public Forests (UPFs) or Florestas Públicas Não Destinadas (FPND), making them among the most strategically important areas for prioritized conservation efforts to maintain the flying rivers system. Nearly more than 12 million acres of public Amazon forest currently lack formal legal protection, and many lie directly within key flying rivers paths, leaving these critical atmospheric corridors highly vulnerable to disruption by the impacts of deforestation driven by logging, land grabbing, mining, fires, and other human-caused activities. According to the report, formally protecting these forests could be one of the most effective ways to safeguard the Amazon’s atmospheric water cycle and reduce the risk of widespread regional drought.

Among the report’s six recommendations is the call to move beyond reactive law enforcement and adopt coordinated Amazon-wide policies that recognize Brazil’s critical role in sustaining the flying rivers across the continent and increase conservation efforts and investments in the most vulnerable areas in Bolivia and Peru. The report also highlights the need for forest restoration, climate adaptation strategies, and stronger science and technology to guide conservation decisions.

“At a country level, we need to double down on science to understand exactly how biodiversity is responding to climate change, both higher temperatures and a reduction in rainfall carried by flying rivers. In parallel, we must maintain and expand the forested connection between the slopes of the Andes and the Amazonian lowlands, creating and conserving these key climate corridors,” states Dr. Corine Vriesendorp, Director of Science at Conservación Amazónica-ACCA in Perú. 

A foreword by renowned Brazilian scientist Carlos Nobre, whose groundbreaking work with American biologist Thomas Lovejoy helped shape the global understanding of the Amazon tipping point, speaks to how decision-makers can use this analysis in policies and action: “This white paper by Amazon Conservation represents an important and timely contribution to this body of knowledge. By identifying the forests most critical to maintaining atmospheric moisture transport, it offers a practical pathway from science to action. The window to act is still open, but it is narrowing. Strengthening the resilience of flying rivers through science-backed, prioritized conservation actions is a vital step in the right direction. This white paper offers a valuable, actionable guide to doing so.” 

The report was developed by Amazon Conservation in collaboration with researchers and partner institutions across the Amazon Basin, including the Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, IPAM, FAS (Fundação Amazônia Sustentável), Conservación Amazónica–ACCA, and Conservación Amazónica–ACEAA.

Read the white paper: https://www.amazonconservation.org/publication/