MAAP #119: Predicting 2020 Brazilian Amazon Fires

The Brazilian Amazon fires made international headlines last year.

By analyzing an archive of satellite imagery (from Planet Explorer), we made the major discovery that many of the 2019 fires were actually burning recently deforested areas (MAAP #113). In fact, many of the fires were burning areas deforested earlier that same year of 2019.

Thus, we may predict 2020 fire locations based on identifying major deforestation events in the early months of this year.

2019 Brazilian Amazon fire burning recently deforested area, not uncontrolled forest fire. Data: Planet; Analysis: MAAP.
2019 Brazilian Amazon fire burning recently deforested area, not uncontrolled forest fire. Data: Planet; Analysis: MAAP.

Using a novel methodology*, we estimate the deforestation of over 150,000 hectares (373,240 acres) of primary forest in the Brazilian Amazon thus far in 2020 (through May 25). Thus, there is high potential for another intense fire season.

Below, we illustrate the process of predicting 2020 fires based on recent deforestation.

Note: In MAAP #118 we just reported that the first major fires of 2020 were in fact burning recently deforested areas (2018-19).

 

 

Predicting 2020 fires

In the Base Map, the yellow dots indicate the largest new deforestation events that we predict are likely 2020 fire locations. See below for satellite imagery examples (letters A-G). Two of the likely fire points are within protected areas (see Annex).

Base Map. Major 2020 deforestation events (yellow dots) as predictors of 2020 fire events. Data: Hansen/UMD/Google/USGS/NASA, UMD/GLAD, RAISG, MAAP. Click to Enlarge.
Base Map. Major 2020 deforestation events (yellow dots) as predictors of 2020 fire events. Data: Hansen/UMD/Google/USGS/NASA, UMD/GLAD, RAISG, MAAP. Click to Enlarge.

 

Examples of Major 2020 Deforestation Events

Below is a series of images showing the major deforestation events of 2020 that we predict are likely upcoming fire locations (see letters A-G on the Base Map above for context). The red arrows point to the major deforestation events. Note that all of the deforestation areas are surrounded by primary forest that could be impacted if fires escape. Also note that several deforestation areas are quite large, over 2,000 hectares (5,000 acres).

Zoom A (Mato Grosso)

Zoom A shows the deforestation of 775 hectares (1,915 acres) between January (left panel) and May 2020 (right panel), in the state of Mato Grosso.

Satellite Zoom A. January to May, showing deforestation.
Zoom A. Click to enlarge.

 

Zoom B (Mato Grosso)

Zoom B shows the deforestation of 205 hectares (510 acres) between January (left panel) and May 2020 (right panel), in the state of Mato Grosso.

Satellite Zoom B. January to May, showing deforestation.
Satellite Zoom B. Click to enlarge.

 

Zoom C (Mato Grosso)

Zoom C shows the deforestation of 395 hectares (980 acres) between January (left panel) and May 2020 (right panel), in the state of Mato Grosso.

 Satellite Zoom C. January to May, showing deforestation.
Zoom C. Click to enlarge.

Zoom D (Mato Grosso)

Zoom D shows the deforestation of 300 hectares (735 acres) between January (left panel) and May 2020 (right panel), in the state of Mato Grosso.

Satellite Zoom D. January to May, showing deforestation.
Zoom D. Click to enlarge.

 

Zoom E (Rondônia)

Zoom E shows the deforestation of 840 hectares (2,075 acres) between January (left panel) and April 2020 (right panel), in the state of Rondônia.

Satellite Zoom E Rondonia. January to May, showing deforestation.
Zoom E. Click to enlarge.

Zoom F (Amazonas)

Zoom F shows the deforestation of 2,395 hectares (5,920 acres) between January (left panel) and May 2020 (right panel), in the state of Amazonas.

Satellite Zoom F Amazonas . January to May, showing deforestation.
Zoom F. Click to enlarge.

Zoom G (Pará)

Zoom G shows the deforestation of 5,990 hectares (14,800 acres) between January (left panel) and May 2020 (right panel), in the state of Pará.

Satellite Zoom G Para . January to May, showing deforestation.
Zoom G. Click to enlarge.

Coordinates

World Eckert IV (Decimal Degrees) (X,Y)

Zoom A: -54.862624, -11.971904
Zoom B: -55.087026, -11.836788
Zoom C: -56.999405, -11.979054
Zoom D: -57.128192, -11.896948
Zoom E: -62.658907, -8.477944
Zoom F: -58.892358, -6.567775
Zoom G: -54.948419, -7.853721

2020 Fire Forecast

The July – September 2020 forecast points to an active fire season in most of the western Amazon – much of central and southern Peru, northern Bolivia and the Brazilian states of Acre and Rondônia. This year’s forecast indicates an active fire season of similar magnitude to those of 2005 and 2010, when widespread fires were observed in the region.

To more information check:https://firecast.cast.uark.edu/

Annex – Likely 2020 fire locations in relation to Protected Areas and Indigenous Territories

Annex

 

Methodology

*We developed a novel methodology to estimate deforestation of primary forest in the Brazilian Amazon. For 2020 data, we merged confirmed GLAD alerts (University of Maryland) with select DETER alerts from the Brazilian space  agency (INPE). This methodology takes advantage of the higher resolution of the GLAD alerts (30 meters vs 64 meters from DETER), but also the national expertise of the Brazilian government.

For the DETER data, we used the three deforestation and mining categories (DESMATAMENTO CR, DESMATAMENTO Vegetal, and MINERACAO). We avoided overlapping areas with the GLAD alerts.

Finally, we filtered the data for only primary forest loss. For our estimate of primary forest loss, we intersected the forest cover loss data with the additional dataset “primary humid tropical forests” as of 2001 (Turubanova et al 2018). We also removed all previous forest loss data 2001-19.

Acknowledgements

We thank J. Beavers, S. Novoa, K. Fernandes, and G. Palacios for helpful comments to earlier versions of this report.

This work was supported by the following major funders: Global Forest Watch Small Grants Fund (WRI), Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD),  International Conservation Fund of Canada (ICFC), Metabolic Studio, and Erol Foundation.

Citation

Finer M, Mamani N (2020) Deforestation and Fires in the Brazilian Amazon – 2020. MAAP:

MAAP #118: Real-time Amazon Fire Monitoring App

In time for the next fire season, we are relaunching an improved version of our Amazon real-time fire monitoring app, hosted by Google Earth Engine.

Image 1. First Major Amazon fire of 2020, in Mato Grosso, Brazil. Data: Planet.
Image 1. First Major Amazon fire of 2020, in Mato Grosso, Brazil. Data: Planet.

When fires burn, they emit gases and aerosols.* A new satellite  (Sentinel-5P from the European Space Agency) detects these aerosol emissions.*

The major feature of the app is user-friendly and real-time identification of major fires across the Amazon, based on the aerosol emissions detected by Sentinel-5P.

The app also contains the commonly-used “fire alerts,” which are satellite-based data of temperature anomalies.*
.
Thus, the user combine data from the atmosphere (aerosol) with data from the ground (temperature) to pinpoint the source of major fires.

Since the data updates daily and is not impacted by clouds, real-time monitoring really is possible. Our goal is to upload each day’s new image by midnight.

Using the app, we recently identified the first major Amazon fire of 2020 on May 28, in the state of Mato Grosso in Brazil. It was burning an area recently deforested in July 2019.

Below, we provide instructions on how to use the app, with the May 28 fire as an example.

Instructions &
How We Identified First Major Brazilian Amazon Fire of 2020

Step 1. Open real-time fire monitoring app, hosted by Google Earth Engine. Scan the Amazon for aerosol emissions of major fires (indicated in yellow, orange, and red). In this case, we spotted elevated emissions in the southeast Brazilian Amazon (on May 28, 2020).

Screenshot of Fire App hosted by Google Earth Engine

 

Step 2. Click the “Layers” menu in the upper right for more options. For example, clicking “State/Department Boundaries” we see the emissions are coming from Mato Grosso. Note you can also add “Protected Areas” and check the dates of the images and alerts.

 

Screenshot of Fire App hosted by Google Earth Engine

 

Step 3. Zoom in on the aerosol emissions.

Screenshot of Fire App hosted by Google Earth Engine

 

Step 4. Adjust (slide down) the transparency of the emissions layer to see the underlying fire alerts. We use the alerts to pinpoint the source of emissions (see purple circle). Obtain coordinates of the alerts by clicking on the map and then checking the “Coordinates” bar on the left  (below  Instructions).

Screenshot of Fire App hosted by Google Earth Engine

 

Step 5. We entered the coordinates into Planet Explorer and found a high-resolution image for that same day (May 28), confirming the first major Amazon fire of 2020. The burned area was 357 hectares (882 acres).Planet Explorer Screenshot of Satellite image of fire

 

 

Predicting 2020 Brazilian Amazon Fires

Using the  Planet archive, we discovered that this exact area was deforested between July and August 2019, and then burned in May 2020. This fits our recent major finding that many Brazilian Amazon fires are actually burning recently deforested areas (MAAP #113). For more on how to predict upcoming fires based on recent deforestation, see MAAP #119.

Planet Explorer Screenshot of Satellite image of fire

 

2020 Fire Forecast

The July – September 2020 forecast points to an active fire season in most of the western Amazon – much of central and southern Peru, northern Bolivia and the Brazilian states of Acre and Rondônia. This year’s forecast indicates an active fire season of similar magnitude to those of 2005 and 2010, when widespread fires were observed in the region.

To more information check:https://firecast.cast.uark.edu/

 

*Notes

  • Aerosol definition: Suspension of fine solid particles or liquid droplets in air or another gas.
  • The high values in the aerosol indices (AI) may also be due to other reasons such as emissions of volcanic ash or desert dust. Hence, some areas, such as the Salar de Uyuni, in western Bolivia, often have orange or red tones.
  • The spatial resolution of the aerosol data is 7.5 sq km
  • The fire alerts are satellite-based data of temperature anomalies on the ground at 375 m resolution.
    .
  • Coordinates of first major 2020 Amazon fire: 11.92° S, 54.06° W
    .
  • Here is link to short story about second major 2020 Amazon fire, also in Mato Grosso, on June 8. It burned an area deforested in 2018. Coordinates: 12.56° S, 54.03° W.

References

Gorelick, N., Hancher, M., Dixon, M., Ilyushchenko, S., Thau, D., & Moore, R. (2017). Google Earth Engine: Planetary-scale geospatial analysis for everyone. Remote Sensing of Environment.”
https://earthengine.google.com/faq/

Acknowledgements

We thank E. Ortiz, S. Novoa, K. Fernandes, G. Palacios for helpful comments to earlier versions of this report.

This work was supported by the following major funders: USAID/NASA (SERVIR), Global Forest Watch Small Grants Fund (WRI), Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD),  International Conservation Fund of Canada (ICFC), Metabolic Studio, and Erol Foundation.

Citation

Finer M, Villa L, Mamani N (2020) Real-time Amazon Fire Monitoring App. MAAP: #118.

MAAP #117: New Oil Road Deeper Into Yasuni National Park (Ecuador), Toward Uncontacted Indigenous Reserves

Yasuní National Park, located in the heart of the Ecuadorian Amazon, is one of the most biodiverse spots in the world and overlaps ancestral Waorani territory. In the recent MAAP #114, we showed the construction of four new oil drilling platforms (and access road) in the controversial ITT oil block, located in the heart of Yasuní.

Here, we show that beginning in mid-March 2020, we detected the construction of a new access road heading further south from the last platform (Image 1). As of early May, this road construction was 4.7 km through primary forest.

Updated: June 30 (4.7 km); June 14 (3.7 km); May 17 (2.2 km).

Image 1. Construction of a new 4.7 km oil access road deeper into Yasuni National Park between March (left panel) and June (right panel) 2020.