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Protecting the Amazon requires more than better technology, stronger science, or more funding alone. It requires bringing those pieces together and making sure the people developing new tools, funding solutions, shaping policy, and working on the ground are part of the same conversation.

That was the idea behind The Amazon Rainforest’s Next Frontier: Technology, Local Leadership, and the Future of Conservation, an exclusive gathering co-hosted by Amazon Conservation, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and Earth Genome in Palo Alto, California.

The evening brought together leaders from conservation, technology, philanthropy, media, civil society, and the private and public sectors to explore how AI, satellites, real-time data, and local expertise are changing what is possible for the Amazon. Just as importantly, it created space for people who do not often work side by side to meet, exchange ideas, and identify opportunities for collaboration.

Connecting ideas, technology, and action

Rhett Butler, CEO and Founder of Mongabay, served as master of ceremonies. The evening opened with reflections from Avecita Chicchón, Program Director at the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; John Nassikas, Board Member at Amazon Conservation; and Steve McCormick, CEO and Co-Founder of Earth Genome.

Matt Finer, Director of Science and the MAAP Program at Amazon Conservation, then provided an Amazon-wide view of the rainforest, showing how satellite data and science are helping reveal both the resilience of the ecosystem and the growing threats it faces. His presentation reinforced a central theme of the evening: better information is powerful, but its real value comes when it reaches the people and institutions able to act on it.

The technology portion of the program featured Ben Strong, Science and Machine Learning Lead at Earth Genome; Amy Rosenthal, Senior Global Director for Conservation Initiatives at Planet; and Ted Schmitt, Senior Director of Conservation at the Allen Institute for AI. Together, they highlighted how advances in Earth observation, artificial intelligence, and machine learning are making environmental change easier to detect, understand, and respond to—while emphasizing that technology is most useful when it supports real conservation decisions.

The evening concluded with a panel moderated by Kuek Ser Kuang Keng, Senior Editor for Rainforest Investigations at the Pulitzer Center, featuring John Beavers, President of Amazon Conservation; Carmen Josse, Executive Director of Fundación EcoCiencia; Maria Franco Chuaire, Program Officer with the Andes-Amazon Initiative at the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; and Marcos Woortmann, political scientist and policy specialist with Caritas Brazil. Their discussion focused on what must happen next: building local capacity, strengthening institutions, improving policy and enforcement, and ensuring that new technology translates into meaningful conservation outcomes.

Where Collaboration Becomes Conservation

The most important part of the evening was not any single presentation. It was the mix of perspectives in the room.

Technology leaders spoke with conservation practitioners. Funders heard directly from organizations working across the Amazon. Scientists, journalists, policy experts, and private-sector leaders had the opportunity to connect around shared challenges and emerging solutions.

That kind of exchange is essential. The Amazon is one interconnected system, and protecting it requires an equally connected network of people and institutions. Amazon Conservation is committed not only to advancing science, technology, and on-the-ground action, but also to helping convene the partnerships that can move conservation forward at the scale the rainforest demands.

We are deeply grateful to our co-hosts, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and Earth Genome, for their continued partnership and support, and to every speaker, partner, and guest who helped make the evening a success.

The challenges facing the Amazon may be immense, but so is the collective knowledge, creativity, and dedication available to meet them.

New report finds 92% of mining-related deforestation occurred in Brazil, while rapid expansion into Colombia threatens Indigenous peoples living in voluntary isolation, despite repeated government operations.

A new report from Amazon Conservation’s MAAP (Monitoring of the Andes Amazon Program), developed in collaboration with the Field Museum of Natural History, reveals that illegal gold mining has cleared 7,901 hectares (19,518 acres) of Amazon rainforest along the Puré–Puruê River, a remote region spanning the border between Brazil and Colombia. The analysis highlights three key findings:

• Most deforestation is concentrated in Brazil: About 92% of total forest loss occurred along Brazil’s Puruê River, and 88% of all mining-related deforestation in the study area was recorded since 2022.
• Mining is rapidly expanding into Colombia: Although Colombia accounts for only 8% of the total deforestation, illegal mining has expanded into Puré River National Park, threatening the territories and safety of the Yurí and Passé Indigenous peoples, who live in voluntary isolation.
• Government operations have not stopped mining expansion: Despite seven enforcement operations, including three coordinated efforts between Brazil and Colombia, mining activity has repeatedly r

MAAP #251: Transboundary Illegal Gold Mining: Brazil (Puruê River) & Colombia (Puré River) highlights that Mining was first detected along Brazil’s Puruê River in 2001, but deforestation remained relatively limited for two decades, reaching 980 hectares (2,421 acres) by the end of 2021. Since then, the situation has changed dramatically. Since 2022, approximately 88% of all mining-related deforestation in the region has occurred, including 4,130 hectares (10,202 acres) cleared in 2022 and 2023 alone.

Today, mining operations extend along the Brazilian Puruê River from its confluence with the Japurá River to the Colombian border.

“We have been monitoring illegal gold mining across the entire Amazon, and this area stands out as one of the most emblematic cases of transboundary environmental crime,” said Dr. Matt Finer, lead author of the report, and Senior Reserach Specialist at Amazon Conservation.”Illegal gold miners have been ravaging the Brazil side (Purue River) for years, and now they are expanding deeper into the Colombia side (Pure River). The situation therefore requires a strategic, coordinated, binational response.”

Rapid escalation inside Colombia and a direct threat to Indigenous peoples in voluntary isolation

The pace of expansion is particularly concerning. Mining-related deforestation along Colombia’s Puré River was first detected in June 2024, when fewer than 5 hectares (12 acres) had been cleared. By the end of that year, the affected area had reached 38 hectares (94 acres). Deforestation doubled in early 2025 and continued to accelerate in 2026, with another 177 hectares (437 acres) cleared between January and May.

Previous MAAP monitoring also identified more than 50 mining dredges operating along the river inside Puré River National Park during 2024 and 2025.

All mining-related deforestation documented on the Colombian side lies within the national park, where mining is prohibited. The expansion poses serious risks to the Yurí and Passé Indigenous peoples, including potential violent encounters, disease transmission, mercury contamination, and disruption of their territories and traditional ways of life.

These risks extend beyond the Colombian side of the border. Evidence from the wider Puré–Puruê landscape indicates that Indigenous peoples living in voluntary isolation may move through a continuous forest territory spanning Colombia and Brazil, regardless of national boundaries. On the Brazilian side, indications of the presence of Indigenous peoples living in isolation require urgent investigation and precautionary protection by the competent authorities.

Mercury contamination and wider environmental impacts

The consequences of illegal gold mining extend beyond the areas directly cleared for extraction. Mercury used in mining can contaminate rivers and aquatic ecosystems, threatening downstream communities whose food security and livelihoods depend on fish and other aquatic resources.

The Puré–Puruê river corridor connects to the wider Japurá river system, so pollution and environmental damage can affect areas far beyond individual mining sites. Mining activity also creates spillover pressures on neighboring protected areas, including Brazil’s Juami-Japurá Ecological Station, and on Indigenous territories connected to the broader landscape.

Although Colombia has prohibited mercury use through legislation introduced in 2013 and strengthened in 2023, the report notes that mercury continues to be used in illegal gold mining in border areas such as the one examined in this analysis. These broader environmental impacts underscore the need to address illegal mining as an interconnected environmental and territorial security challenge.

Enforcement operations have not stopped mining expansion

The report documents seven government operations against illegal mining in the region: four focused on the Brazilian side, while three involved binational coordination between Colombian and Brazilian authorities in December 2023, May 2025, and November 2025. While these interventions temporarily reduced mining activity, deforestation resumed within months.

Following the May 2025 operation, mining-related deforestation in Colombia declined during June and July before increasing again by November. A similar pattern followed the November 2025 operation, with activity declining temporarily before rising again in March 2026.

The report also highlights the role of organized crime and logistical networks that sustain illegal mining. Brazilian municipalities such as Japurá, Maraã, and Jutaí serve as transportation and supply hubs, connecting mining operations to larger commercial centers, including Manaus.

These river networks facilitate the movement of equipment, fuel, supplies, and illegally extracted gold, making enforcement increasingly complex.

In August 2026, Colombia’s Ministry of the Interior issued an early warning calling for coordinated government action. However, the response has so far been limited to administrative coordination, without new operational deployments.

The findings reinforce the need for a sustained binational strategy that goes beyond isolated enforcement operations. The report recommends stronger territorial protection, coordinated action against criminal and logistical networks, and continued satellite monitoring to detect new mining activity and evaluate enforcement efforts.

The report calls for a long-term strategy that combines territorial protection, stronger governance, sustained binational coordination, and permanent monitoring. 

“Protecting the people and the biodiversity of the Amazon requires cooperation across borders. Sustained coordination between Brazil and Colombia can address threats and safeguard the connected forests and rivers Indigenous peoples depend on. For Indigenous peoples in voluntary isolation, protecting their territories and respecting their decision to remain uncontacted are essential to their survival,” according to Jeremy Campbell, Director of the Andes-Amazon Program at the Keller Science Action Center of the Field Museum. 

Amazon Conservation’s latest analysis finds that 97 million hectares (240 million acres) of primary forest have been lost – an area the size of Texas and California combined – and that the moisture pathways that forests depend on during the dry and transition seasons are the most disrupted.

A new report from Amazon Conservation’s Monitoring of the Andes Amazon Program (MAAP) finds that 15% of the Amazon basin’s original primary forest is already gone, and that the losses are concentrated along the moisture routes some regions depend on most.

The report, MAAP #250: Amazon Tipping Point – Where Are We? (2026 Update), estimates that 97.06 million hectares (240 million acres) of primary forest have been lost across the Amazon biome’s nine countries through the end of 2025, mainly due to human-caused deforestation and fires. Total forest loss rose from 13.2% in 2021, as estimated in Amazon Conservation’s first assessment (MAAP #164), to 15% through 2025. Between 2022 and 2025 alone, an additional 13.04 million hectares (32.2 million acres) of primary forest were lost, an area nearly 15 times the size of Yellowstone National Park. This includes record-breaking losses due to fire in 2024, following the 2023’s strong El Niño season (MAAP #229). This additional loss of primary forest brings the Amazon closer to its tipping point, which scientific literature suggests could be triggered at around 25% forest loss, in combination with climate change impacts.

The analysis also breaks down forest loss along the Amazon’s seasonal flying rivers. It finds that the pathways carrying moisture during the dry and transition seasons have lost nearly three times more forest than the wet-season pathway. These pathways sustain forests in the southwestern Amazon, in Peru and Bolivia, where more than 70% of rainfall depends on moisture recycled by forests across the Basin.

These findings take on added urgency ahead of the very strong El Niño forecast expected to intensify for late 2026. MAAP #248 suggests that El Niño may disrupt the Amazon’s wet-season moisture flow, extending the dry and transition seasons and increasing the risk of forest fires. These are the same regions whose moisture pathways MAAP #250 finds are already the most deforested.

Matt Finer, Director of MAAP & Senior Research Specialist at Amazon Conservation, highlights that “media reports often indicate in general terms that the Amazon is approaching a tipping point, but this is the actual data indicating the magnitude of the problem. With 15% of the original Amazon lost to deforestation and fires, we are approaching the point at which the hydrological cycle that sustains rainforests may be permanently disrupted.”

Why monitoring the Amazon’s tipping point matters

The Amazon’s tipping point hypothesis suggests that parts of the rainforest could shift toward drier savanna ecosystems as deforestation reaches 25% and climate change disrupts rainfall patterns and intensifies dry seasons. However, this threshold is not definitive; the changes may be gradual and piecemeal, and the risk may vary considerably across the Amazon.

Amazon Conservation’s 2022 deforestation analysis illustrated this geographic variation. While an estimated 13.2% of the original Amazon biome forest had been lost at the time, loss in the eastern third of the biome (mainly in the Brazilian Amazon) was already approximately 30.8%, exceeding the hypothesized 25% threshold. In comparison, the central third had lost 10.8% and the western third 6.3%. This finding highlighted the importance of monitoring not only total forest loss, but also where it occurs in relation to the Amazon’s interconnected hydrological system. Because the rainforest generates around half of its own rainfall and recycles moisture up to six times through atmospheric flows known as flying rivers, disruptions to this fragile system in one area of the basin can have a domino effect elsewhere.

Flying Rivers Connect Forest Loss in the East to Rainfall in the West

Flying rivers carry moisture from the Atlantic Ocean westward across the Amazon. Trees are a crucial part of this cycle: they draw water from the soil and release it back into the atmosphere as water vapor, helping sustain rainfall all the way to the Andes.

This connection means that deforestation in one region can have consequences beyond its immediate area. When the forests that help sustain these moisture flows are cleared, the amount of moisture reaching downwind regions may be reduced, potentially threatening ecosystems that depend on recycled rainfall. For this reason, the Amazon’s tipping point is unlikely to be a single, uniform event. Instead, it may unfold gradually, over decades rather than abruptly, and differently across regions, with some areas affected sooner and more severely than others.

In MAAP #232 (2025) and the subsequent white paper, Keeping the flying river flowing: How deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon threatens rainfall in Peru and Bolivia (2026), researchers examined these connections in greater detail. They identified the southwestern Amazon (primarily in Peru and Bolivia) as particularly vulnerable and found that these connections are exacerbated by changing seasons. During the dry and transition seasons, moisture reaching this region crosses the eastern and central Brazilian Amazon, including heavily deforested areas of Brazil’s southern Pará region.

Seasonal Trends Remain in 2026 Update

Amazon Conservation’s MAAP #250 brings these two lines of research together, updating forest-loss estimates through 2025 and applying the analysis to the three seasonal pathways identified in MAAP #232. The results show a clear contrast between seasons: The wet season pathway, which crosses relatively continuous and well-protected forests in the northern Amazon, remains comparatively intact, with just 3.2% forest loss. In contrast, pathways active during the transition and dry seasons have lost nearly three times as much connectivity, losing 9.1% and 8.6%, respectively. These findings are particularly relevant for the southwestern Amazon, where forest-driven moisture recycling plays an important role in sustaining rainforest ecosystems during the dry and transition seasons.

The update uses the same baseline developed for MAAP #164: a reconstruction of the Amazon’s original forest before European colonization, estimated at 647.6 million hectares (1.6 billion acres). Of the 97.06 million hectares lost, 84.28 million were due to deforestation and other non-fire causes, including natural events such as landslides and windstorms, and 12.78 million to fire. Brazil accounts for the largest share of total loss (79.4%), followed by Bolivia (6.2%), Peru (5.8%), and Colombia (4.5%). Bolivia now ranks second, up from fourth in the 2022 assessment.

Together, Amazon Conservation’s reports show that understanding the Amazon’s tipping point requires more than a single estimate of how much forest has been lost to date. Monitoring and understanding where deforestation occurs, how it intersects with seasonal moisture pathways, and which regions rely most on recycled rainfall can help identify areas of heightened vulnerability and inform conservation priorities. As pressures from deforestation, fires, and climate change continue, it is essential to start looking at the Amazon as an interconnected system rather than as isolated forests separated by country boundaries. A connected forest calls for connected science and conservation.

Read the full report: MAAP #250: Amazon Tipping Point – Where Are We? (2026 Update)

Additional resources: 

MAAP #164: Amazon Tipping Point – Where Are We?

MAAP #229: Amazon Deforestation & Fire Hotspots 2024

MAAP #248: Implications of upcoming major El Niño event on Amazon fires

Keeping the Flying Rivers Flowing: How Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon Threatens Rainfall in Peru and Bolivia

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New analysis assesses the impacts of BR-364 expansion on Acre’s forests and warns of risks to REDD+ investments and the communities that depend on these resources

A new analysis of planned road infrastructure expansion in Acre estimates that a paved international road between the Brazilian state and Pucallpa, Peru, could cause approximately 74,700 hectares of additional deforestation over ten years and 133,800 hectares over twenty years, beyond the losses projected from paving BR-364.

The report, “Acre at the Crossroads: How Road Expansion Threatens a Decade of REDD+ Progress in the Brazilian Amazon”, prepared by researchers from Amazon Conservation and SOS Amazônia, analyzes three infrastructure scenarios and uses as a historical reference the impacts observed along BR-317, the Interoceanic Highway, following its international connection with Peru.

Between 2011 and 2023, Acre’s average annual forest loss rate was 0.58%. In areas within five kilometers of BR-317, the rate reached 2.67% per year, 4.6 times the state average. Between five and 20 kilometers from the road, the rate was 2.54%, or 4.4 times the Acre average, while areas between 20 and 50 kilometers experienced a rate of 1.22%, or 2.1 times the state average.

Based on this historical experience, researchers estimated the impacts on forest areas that would become more accessible under different road expansion scenarios. Paving BR-364 between Rio Branco and Cruzeiro do Sul, combined with improvements to the connection with Porto Walter, could be associated with an additional 857,400 hectares of deforestation over ten years. With a new international road to Pucallpa, the projection reaches 932,100 hectares over the same period. The difference between the two scenarios is approximately 74,700 hectares over ten years and 133,800 hectares over twenty years.

These figures should not be interpreted as precise forecasts. Actual outcomes would depend on several factors, including enforcement and the management of protected areas along road corridors.

Environmental and economic gains at risk

Over the past two decades, Acre has built one of the world’s most established jurisdictional REDD+ programs. REDD+ stands for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and is a mechanism designed to reward countries and jurisdictions for avoiding emissions associated with forest loss.

Since 2012, the REDD+ Early Movers (REM) program, an initiative that rewards verified emission reductions, has provided the state with approximately €56 million, equivalent to R$331 million, for around 21 million tons of verified emission reductions.

In 2025, Acre also signed a presale agreement with Standard Chartered Bank for credits corresponding to up to 40 million tons of emission reductions, with the potential to generate up to US$150 million in carbon credit revenue. The state’s Benefit Sharing Plan allocates 72% of net revenues from the sale of these credits to forest communities.

Maintaining this flow of resources is directly linked to continued reductions in deforestation. Projections presented by the state indicate the potential to generate up to US$1.83 billion between 2023 and 2027 from the sale of credits issued under TREES, the Architecture for REDD+ Transactions’ REDD+ Environmental Excellence Standard. These figures depend on both continued reductions in deforestation and demand in the voluntary carbon market.

“There is a tension between Acre’s existing REDD+ commitments and progress on reducing deforestation and the new risks associated with road expansion. Some of that new infrastructure is rightly needed but its impact in terms of putting additional forest cover at risk will need to be managed carefully. Some of these infrastructure projects, like the connection between Cruzeiro do Sul and Pucallpa, don’t stand the test of reason. After decades investing in a vision that sees Acre’s forests preserved, some consistency is needed.” says Blaise Bodin, Director of Policy and Strategy at Amazon Conservation.

Regional integration with forest protection

The analysis highlights the importance of infrastructure for Acre’s population and the economic and social benefits of regional integration, particularly in hard to reach areas, while emphasizing the need to incorporate medium and long term environmental and climate impacts into planning, with adequate impact assessment, licensing, monitoring, and enforcement.

 In the case of the proposed connection to Pucallpa, economic evidence included in the report also raises questions about the project’s viability. A 2022 assessment published by Conservation Strategy Fund calculated a negative net present value for both the Peruvian and Brazilian sections of the connection, with an internal rate of return below zero in both cases.

The MAP region, which encompasses Madre de Dios in Peru, Acre in Brazil, and Pando in Bolivia, contains more than 54 million hectares of relatively intact forest and communities with extensive experience in forest management. In Acre alone, the sustainable production of non timber forest products could generate up to US$71 million in net annual revenue while maintaining forest cover.

The Port of Chancay in Peru also expands opportunities to access Asian markets for products from the Amazon forest economy, including açaí, Brazil nuts, certified timber, and ingredients for the cosmetics and pharmaceutical industries.

Daniela Dias, Leader of The Protected Areas and Biodiversity Conservation Program at SOS Amazônia, remarks that “Acre has great potential to consolidate its existing climate policy by integrating different sectors around a development model that values standing forests. This is not about choosing conservation over development, but about strategic action to safeguard territorial integrity while creating sustainable economic opportunities through a model of bioeconomy based on local knowledge, REDD+ and environmental services.” 

About the study

“Acre at the Crossroads: How Road Expansion Threatens a Decade of REDD+ Progress in the Brazilian Amazon” examines the potential impacts of road infrastructure expansion in Acre on deforestation, the state’s climate commitments, and REDD+ related revenues. The modeling compares three infrastructure scenarios and uses historical data from BR-317 as a reference to estimate the risks associated with the expansion of BR-364 and a potential international connection to Pucallpa, Peru. The study was prepared by researchers from Amazon Conservation in partnership with SOS Amazônia.

Read the full report: https://www.amazonconservation.org/publication/

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A new analysis by Fundación EcoCiencia and Amazon Conservation shows a sustained expansion of mining activity across five areas in the cantons of Tena and Carlos Julio Arosemena Tola. Between 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, satellite monitoring identified 580 hectares of newly affected land.

Within the framework of the Monitoring of the Andes Amazon Program (MAAP), Fundación EcoCiencia and Amazon Conservation have documented the continued growth of mining operations in the southern part of Napo province. Satellite data reveal 2,321 hectares affected by mining between January 2017 and March 2026 in five zones within the cantons of Tena and Carlos Arosemena Tola. Of that total, 580 hectares correspond to new mining activity detected during 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.

The report updates a previous assessment that had documented 1,741 hectares affected between 2017 and 2024. Through satellite monitoring, the new analysis examines five zones: the Jatunyacu, Anzu, and Huambuno rivers; the Puní–Cotona–Arajuno corridor; and a newly evaluated area along the Napo River near the communities of Sindy and San Carlos.

The findings reveal varying degrees of expansion across these monitored areas. The Anzu River shows the largest accumulated impact, reaching 806 hectares by March 2026, with roughly 13% of that area located outside the official mining cadastre. Along the Jatunyacu River, the affected area totals 561 hectares. In Huambuno, the impacted area reached 674 hectares as of March 2026, and approximately 23% of this activity occurs outside the mining cadastre.

One of the most notable developments is observed in the Puní–Cotona–Arajuno corridor, where the affected area increased from 112 hectares recorded up to January 2024 to 234 hectares by March 2026. In this corridor, 99% of the identified mining activity lies outside concessioned areas in the mining cadastre. During the first quarter of 2026 alone, the expansion exceeded 35% of the total area reported in 2025, underscoring a clear intensification of mining activity.

The report also identifies a new area of mining expansion along the Napo River, near the communities of Sindy and San Carlos. In this zone, the affected area grew from six hectares between 2023 and 2024 to 43 hectares in 2025, and 47 hectares by March 2026. Ninety‑four percent of this expansion lies outside the areas registered in the mining cadastre. Monitoring detected both small‑scale artisanal mining and larger operations using specialized machinery, including industrial classifier plants.

The analysis also documents several impacts associated with mining activity, such as the removal of forest cover, soil disturbance, changes in watercourses, erosion, and the formation of sedimentation pools. Along the Anzu River, interventions were identified near a petroglyph listed in the Ecuadorian Cultural Heritage Information System (SIPCE). Although no direct damage to the carving was observed, the report highlights the cultural sensitivity of the area and stresses the need to strengthen its protection.

In response to these findings, the report urges stronger monitoring, enforcement, and protection measures for the Napo River basin. It recommends integrating satellite imagery and drone surveillance with regular field inspections, community‑based monitoring, and sustained public oversight to ensure more effective control of mining activity.

Read the full report: 

https://www.maapprogram.org/mining-ecuador-napo/

 

 

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New Amazon-wide analysis of eight El Niño events finds that stronger events are followed by greater primary forest fire loss, and that reducing deforestation now could lower the risk of a major fire crisis in 2027.

As forecasts indicate, a very strong El Niño will develop in the last three months of 2026 (from October to December). Headlines around the world have focused on rising ocean temperatures, drought, and extreme weather. But according to a new study from Amazon Conservation’s Monitoring of the Andes Amazon Program (MAAP), a key part of the story unfolds after El Niño peaks.

The report finds that the two most severe Amazon fire seasons in recent history, in 2016 and 2024, both occurred immediately after the two strongest El Niño events of the past two decades (2015 and 2023, respectively). Researchers analyzed all eight El Niño events since 2002 and found a consistent pattern: stronger El Niño events were followed by more severe fire seasons in the following year, leading to greater losses of primary forest to wildfires. 

The numbers illustrate the pattern clearly. The very strong El Niño of 2015 (a sea surface temperature anomaly of +2.34°C) was followed by 4.35 million acres (1.76 million hectares) of primary forest lost to fire in 2016. The strong El Niño of 2023 (+1.49°C) was followed by 6.89 million acres (2.79 million hectares) lost in 2024, the worst fire season on record. By comparison, weak El Niño years were followed by losses under 395,000 acres (160,000 hectares). Researchers note the relationship approaches the traditional threshold of statistical significance, a meaningful signal given the limited sample of only eight qualifying El Niño events.

This report’s analysis focuses on primary forest loss rather than total burned area, because primary forests are the Amazon’s most intact ecosystems, storing great concentrations of carbon and sheltering high levels of biodiversity across the basin. Unlike secondary growth or agricultural land, primary forest does not regenerate on human timescales once lost. And because these forests do not burn on their own, any fire-driven loss signals that flames have likely escaped from recently cleared land into untouched forest, making primary forest loss a direct measure of the most irreversible damage occurring in the Amazon.

What makes this analysis distinctive is this scope: rather than focusing on individual countries or total burned area, as previous studies, researchers analyzed the Amazon as a single connected biome and measured primary forest loss from fires across the entire region, offering a basin-wide perspective on one of its most urgent conservation challenges.

“Our critical finding is all about a lagging or delayed impact for the Amazon,” said Dr. Matt Finer, Director of MAAP and Senior Research Specialist at Amazon Conservation. He explains that “20 years of data indicate a very strong El Niño in 2026, which means a very likely intense Amazon fire season in 2027, creating a critical window for governments to act now, before the next major fire season.”

The report emphasizes that El Niño does not directly cause Amazon fires. Unlike many forests around the world, the Amazon Rainforest does not naturally burn because it’s naturally humid. Nearly all fires are caused by human activity. Most begin when recently deforested land is intentionally burned for agricultural expansion, and then escape into surrounding forests under the hotter, drier conditions associated with El Niño. Previous MAAP analyses have shown that more than 70% of major Amazon fires originate in recently cleared areas, making reductions in deforestation a critical tool for preventing wildfires.

The report also reviews how Amazonian countries responded to the record-breaking 2024 fire season. While preparedness has improved in Brazil, Peru, and Bolivia, researchers caution that the lower fire impacts observed in 2025, 3.71 million acres (1.5 million hectares)  burned, versus 6.9 million acres (2.8 million hectares) in 2024, were largely aided by the wetter conditions associated with La Niña (the cooler counterpart to El Niño that often brings more rainfall to the Amazon) rather than institutional readiness alone. Bolivia illustrates the risk of uneven progress most clearly: the country’s fines for illegal burning remain roughly 2% of Brazil’s, and a land-reform measure that would have accelerated deforestation in the hardest-hit departments of Santa Cruz and Beni was enacted in early 2026 before being repealed amid public protest. Combined with the country’s deepening economic and political crisis, researchers warn that Bolivia could become the epicenter of the 2027 fire season.

However, the true test of preparedness will come in 2027, when the delayed impacts of El Niño reveal whether the decisions governments make now were enough to reduce fire risks across the Amazon.

Understanding El Niño
El Niño occurs when ocean temperatures rise above normal in an area of the Pacific Ocean that strongly influences weather patterns around the world. Scientists consider an El Niño event to be underway when those temperatures are at least 0.5°C warmer than average. Current forecasts suggest they could rise more than 2°C above average by the end of 2026, which would make this a “Very Strong” El Niño. The last event to reach that level was in 2015, shortly before the devastating 2016 Amazon fire season. Some models suggest temperatures could climb close to 3°C above average, potentially making this one of the strongest El Niño events ever recorded. 

“We can’t stop El Niño, but we can act now to minimize its impacts in the Amazon,” said Finer. “Reducing deforestation in 2026 and the fuel load it becomes, is one of the most effective strategies for minimizing fire impact in 2027.”

Read the full report 

 

 

Written by: Emma Rada – Conservación Amazónica-ACEAA, Bolivia

When the boat engine falls silent in the middle of a river that serves as both road and lifeline, nature seems to reclaim the landscape. The water becomes still again, a heron soars across the sky, the wind stirs the crowns of towering trees. And for a fleeting moment, everything seems to breathe without hurry. Jefferson watches. Then smiles.

Long before he ever donned a park ranger’s uniform, Jefferson Gonzales was just a boy who would accompany his father on fishing trips along these rivers. As he watched his father deftly navigate the waterways, he imagined that one day, he would be steering the boat. But he never expected that this childhood daydream would ultimately define his life, leading him to devote his career, his life, to protecting some of Bolivia’s best-preserved natural landscape.

Eleven years ago, Jefferson secured a job as a park ranger for the Manuripi National Wildlife Reserve in Pando, Bolivia. He was only twenty years old, naive, yet perceptive enough to grasp this fundamental truth about himself: he belonged in the forest.

“Being a park ranger isn’t a job,” he says with a knowing smile. “It’s an adventure.”

It only takes a few minutes of conversation to realize he isn’t exaggerating.

The Reserve protects nearly 747,000 hectares (over 1.8 million acres) of forests, rivers, and wetlands that host an extraordinary diversity of wildlife. Overseeing a territory of this scale means hours spent navigating rivers, hiking long forest trails, guiding and managing visitors, and responding swiftly whenever an activity threatens the forest’s integrity. And it all rests on the shoulders of a small team of rangers, whose daily commitment preserves one of the most valuable landscapes in the Bolivian Amazon.

Yet when asked about the hardest part of being a ranger, Jefferson never mentions the rain, the mosquitoes, the snake bites, the strenuous hikes, or the conflicts that arise during the Brazil nut harvest season.

Instead, he talks about his family. 

About the birthdays he has missed. About the special occasions that inevitably pass while he remains stationed at a remote outpost, far from home. “That is the hardest part,” he admits, his voice tightening with emotion.

And so he has come to understand that conserving the forest means accepting the quiet sacrifices of his chosen life: giving up the everyday luxuries most people take for granted.

Protecting nature is not only about preventing illegal logging or safeguarding vulnerable species. It is also about choosing to stay, even when that commitment means missing irreplaceable moments with the people you love most.

And yet, somehow, the forest always finds a way to give that time back.

Jefferson remembers every colleague with whom he has shared a patrol. Some have retired; others have followed different paths. Yet every trail, every tree, every river holds a memory of those years spent together. Now it is his turn to carry that legacy forward, helping new rangers understand that love for a protected area does not appear overnight. It grows with every patrol, every sunrise reflected on the river, and every day spent deep in the forest.

Today, the boy who once admired his father’s harmony with nature is in his second year of environmental engineering studies. After more than a decade of learning the forest through experience, he wanted to see it through yet another lens.

His studies have revealed to him a whole new framework for interpreting the forest: that beneath the water lies an invisible world teeming with microorganisms; that plants such as water hyacinth (Pontederia crassipes) naturally help purify freshwater ecosystems; and that every species plays an essential role in maintaining the balance of the Amazon. What he once understood intuitively, he can now explain.

But perhaps the most important lesson a park ranger can learn takes place neither in the forest nor at school. It happens at home.

Jefferson proudly shares that his children already speak regularly about conservation, pick up any litter they spot on the ground, and care for nature as part of their everyday lives. These small acts were born from watching their father leave, time and again, for the forest, unwavering in his conviction that protecting the Amazon is worth every sacrifice.

In his children, Jefferson witnesses a quiet but essential truth. The spirit of conservation can and must be passed down through generations. An intact forest requires so much more than legal protections and park rangers; it depends on the willingness of those who love it deeply to teach and spread that love.

On International Ranger Day, we celebrate these selfless men and women who walk remote trails, patrol rivers, and protect biodiversity. But rarely do we stop to think about everything that lies behind the uniform: childhood dreams realized, families forced to learn to love across distance, tricks of the trade whispered from one colleague to another. And a man who, even after eleven years of difficult work, looks at the river with the same sense of wonder as the child who once dreamt of mastering the art of navigating its flowing waters.

Thank you, Jefferson.

And thank you to every park ranger who teaches us that once you truly learn to love a forest, you can’t help but dedicate your life, in countless ways, to protecting it.

 

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