As presented in MAAP #118, Amazon Conservation launched a real-time fire monitoring app that specializes in detection of elevated aerosol emissions in the smoke coming from burning Amazon fires. As detailed below, the app just detected the fourth major Amazon fire of 2020 on June 17. All four fires thus far have been in the state of Mato Grosso and burning recently deforested areas (see MAAP #113 for background).

Step 1.

Detection of elevated emissions in the southeastern Brazilian Amazon (Mato Grosso).

Step 2.

Zoom in on the emissions.

Step 3.

Adjust the transparency to see the underlying fire alerts that indicate the exact location of the fires. Obtain coordinates of the source of the fires.

Step 4.

Check the satellite imagery in Planet Explorer. Here is a high resolution Planet image showing the fire burning on June 17. Also see the comparisons below, comparing the the June 17 fires with a pre-fire image from June 10.

Pre-fire image, June 10:

June 17 fires:

Step 5.

Using Planet’s extensive imagery archive, we were able to determine that the fires were burning an area deforested in 2019 (and not a forest fire).

Coordinates: -10.45, -53.55

Annex – Fire Alert vs. Aerosol Emission Data

This two images show us how aerosol emission data allows users to prioritize hundreds (or thousands) of heat-based fire alerts (photo 1). In other words, the aerosol data indicates just the fires that are  actually burning lots of biomass and putting out abundant smoke.

References

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the following major funders: USAID/NASA (SERVIR), Global Forest Watch Small Grants Fund (WRI), Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD),  International Conservation Fund of Canada (ICFC), Metabolic Studio, and Erol Foundation.

Citation

Finer M, Villa L (2020) Amazon Fire Tracker 2020: Brazil #4 (June 17, 2020). MAAP.

As presented in MAAP #118, Amazon Conservation launched a real-time fire monitoring app that specializes in detection of elevated aerosol emissions from burning Amazon fires. As detailed below, the app detected the second major 2020 fire on June 8, 2020 in Mato Grosso, Brazil.

Step 1. Detection of elevated emissions in the southeastern Brazilian Amazon (Mato Grosso).

Step 2. Zoom in on the emissions, adjust the transparency to see the underlying fire alerts that indicate the fire location.

Step 3. Zoom in again to see precisely the fire location and obtain coordinates.

Step 4. Check the satellite imagery archive in Planet Explorer. Here is a Landsat image (30 meter resolution) showing the fire burned around 3,000 hectares (7,400 acres) of an area deforested in July 2018. Note that MAAP #113 made the important discovery that most of the 2019 Brazilian Amazon fires were burning recently deforested areas (and not uncontrolled forest fires).

Coordinates

lat: -12.57, lon: -54.06

References

Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the following major funders: USAID/NASA (SERVIR), Global Forest Watch Small Grants Fund (WRI), Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD),  International Conservation Fund of Canada (ICFC), Metabolic Studio, and Erol Foundation.

Citation

Finer M, Villa L (2020) Amazon 2020 Fire Tracker #2 – Brazil, June 8. MAAP.

The Brazilian Amazon fires made international headlines last year.

By analyzing an archive of satellite imagery (from Planet Explorer), we made the major discovery that many of the 2019 fires were actually burning recently deforested areas (MAAP #113). In fact, many of the fires were burning areas deforested earlier that same year of 2019.

Thus, we may predict 2020 fire locations based on identifying major deforestation events in the early months of this year.

2019 Brazilian Amazon fire burning recently deforested area, not uncontrolled forest fire. Data: Planet; Analysis: MAAP.

Using a novel methodology*, we estimate the deforestation of over 150,000 hectares (373,240 acres) of primary forest in the Brazilian Amazon thus far in 2020 (through May 25). Thus, there is high potential for another intense fire season.

Below, we illustrate the process of predicting 2020 fires based on recent deforestation.

Note: In MAAP #118 we just reported that the first major fires of 2020 were in fact burning recently deforested areas (2018-19).

Predicting 2020 fires

In the Base Map, the yellow dots indicate the largest new deforestation events that we predict are likely 2020 fire locations. See below for satellite imagery examples (letters A-G). Two of the likely fire points are within protected areas (see Annex).

Base Map. Major 2020 deforestation events (yellow dots) as predictors of 2020 fire events. Data: Hansen/UMD/Google/USGS/NASA, UMD/GLAD, RAISG, MAAP. Click to Enlarge.

Examples of Major 2020 Deforestation Events

Below is a series of images showing the major deforestation events of 2020 that we predict are likely upcoming fire locations (see letters A-G on the Base Map above for context). The red arrows point to the major deforestation events. Note that all of the deforestation areas are surrounded by primary forest that could be impacted if fires escape. Also note that several deforestation areas are quite large, over 2,000 hectares (5,000 acres).

Zoom A (Mato Grosso)

Zoom A shows the deforestation of 775 hectares (1,915 acres) between January (left panel) and May 2020 (right panel), in the state of Mato Grosso.

Zoom A. Click to enlarge.

Zoom B (Mato Grosso)

Zoom B shows the deforestation of 205 hectares (510 acres) between January (left panel) and May 2020 (right panel), in the state of Mato Grosso.

Satellite Zoom B. Click to enlarge.

Zoom C (Mato Grosso)

Zoom C shows the deforestation of 395 hectares (980 acres) between January (left panel) and May 2020 (right panel), in the state of Mato Grosso.

Zoom C. Click to enlarge.

Zoom D (Mato Grosso)

Zoom D shows the deforestation of 300 hectares (735 acres) between January (left panel) and May 2020 (right panel), in the state of Mato Grosso.

Zoom D. Click to enlarge.

Zoom E (Rondônia)

Zoom E shows the deforestation of 840 hectares (2,075 acres) between January (left panel) and April 2020 (right panel), in the state of Rondônia.

Zoom E. Click to enlarge.

Zoom F (Amazonas)

Zoom F shows the deforestation of 2,395 hectares (5,920 acres) between January (left panel) and May 2020 (right panel), in the state of Amazonas.

Zoom F. Click to enlarge.

Zoom G (Pará)

Zoom G shows the deforestation of 5,990 hectares (14,800 acres) between January (left panel) and May 2020 (right panel), in the state of Pará.

Zoom G. Click to enlarge.

Coordinates

World Eckert IV (Decimal Degrees) (X,Y)

Zoom A: -54.862624, -11.971904
Zoom B: -55.087026, -11.836788
Zoom C: -56.999405, -11.979054
Zoom D: -57.128192, -11.896948
Zoom E: -62.658907, -8.477944
Zoom F: -58.892358, -6.567775
Zoom G: -54.948419, -7.853721

2020 Fire Forecast

The July – September 2020 forecast points to an active fire season in most of the western Amazon – much of central and southern Peru, northern Bolivia and the Brazilian states of Acre and Rondônia. This year’s forecast indicates an active fire season of similar magnitude to those of 2005 and 2010, when widespread fires were observed in the region.

To more information check:https://firecast.cast.uark.edu/

Annex – Likely 2020 fire locations in relation to Protected Areas and Indigenous Territories

Methodology

*We developed a novel methodology to estimate deforestation of primary forest in the Brazilian Amazon. For 2020 data, we merged confirmed GLAD alerts (University of Maryland) with select DETER alerts from the Brazilian space  agency (INPE). This methodology takes advantage of the higher resolution of the GLAD alerts (30 meters vs 64 meters from DETER), but also the national expertise of the Brazilian government.

For the DETER data, we used the three deforestation and mining categories (DESMATAMENTO CR, DESMATAMENTO Vegetal, and MINERACAO). We avoided overlapping areas with the GLAD alerts.

Finally, we filtered the data for only primary forest loss. For our estimate of primary forest loss, we intersected the forest cover loss data with the additional dataset “primary humid tropical forests” as of 2001 (Turubanova et al 2018). We also removed all previous forest loss data 2001-19.

Acknowledgements

We thank J. Beavers, S. Novoa, K. Fernandes, and G. Palacios for helpful comments to earlier versions of this report.

This work was supported by the following major funders: Global Forest Watch Small Grants Fund (WRI), Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD),  International Conservation Fund of Canada (ICFC), Metabolic Studio, and Erol Foundation.

Citation

Finer M, Mamani N (2020) Deforestation and Fires in the Brazilian Amazon – 2020. MAAP:

In MAAP #109 we reported a major finding critical to understanding this year’s fires in the Brazilian Amazon: many of the 2019 fires followed 2019 deforestation events.

Here, we present our more comprehensive estimate: 125,000 hectares (310,000 acres) deforested in 2019 and then later burned in 2019 (July-September). This is equivalent to 172,000 soccer fields.*

Thus, the issue is both deforestation AND fire; the fires are often a lagging indicator of recent agricultural deforestation.

This key finding flips the widely reported assumption that the fires are burning intact rainforests for crops and cattle.

Instead, we find it’s the other way around, the forests were cut and then burned, presumably to enrich the soils. It is “slash and burn” agriculture, not “burn and slash.”

The policy implications are important: national and international focus needs to be on minimizing new deforestation, in addition to fire prevention and management.

This breakthrough data is based on our analysis of an extensive satellite imagery archive, allowing us to visually confirm areas that were deforested in 2019 and later burned in 2019 (see Methodology).

Below we present a new series of 7 striking timelapse videos that vividly show examples of 2019 deforestation followed by fires (See Base Map below for exact zoom locations).

Base Map. 2019 deforestation and fire hotspots in the Brazilian Amazon. Data: UMD/GLAD, NASA (MODIS), PRODES

The fires in the Brazilian Amazon have been the subject of intense global attention over the past month.

As part of our ongoing coverage, we go a step further and analyze the relationship between fire and deforestation in 2019.

First, we present the first known Base Map showing both 2019 deforestation and fire hotspots, and, importantly, the areas of overlap. The letters correspond to Zooms below.

Second, we present a series of 16 high-resolution timelapse videos (Zooms A-K), courtesy of the satellite company Planet. They show five scenarios that we have documented thus far in 2019:

1. Deforestation (No Fire)
2. Deforestation (Followed by Fire)
3. Agriculture Fire
4. Savanna Fire
5. Forest Fire

The key finding is that Deforestation (Followed by Fire) is critically important to understanding this year’s fire season (see Zooms B-E).

We documented numerous cases of 2019 deforestation events followed by intense fires, covering at least 52,500 hectares (130,000 acres) and counting. That is equivalent to 72,000 soccer fields.

The other common scenario is Agriculture Fire in areas cleared prior to 2019, but close to surrounding forest (see Zooms F and G).

We are also now seeing more examples of Savanna Fire in grassland areas among the rainforest. These fires can be large — we show a 24,000 hectare burn (60,000 acres) in Kayapó indigenous territory (see Zoom H).

We did not observe major Forest Fires in the moist Brazilian Amazon during August, but we did document such fires in early March in Roraima state. As the dry season continues into September and October, however, forest fires become a greater risk.